There are some problems in the Middle East, and they concern pretty much all members of our species. As with most problems, there is a solution. Most solutions, however, are predicated on a clear understanding of the problem.

In order to develop a clear understanding of a problem, which in this case, is manifesting itself as a war, one must identify the participants, and examine their motives.

In Iraq, the participants, at least the important ones, are as follows: the United States, the Iraqi people, and Iran. For the sake of simplicity, I am choosing to disregard Israel’s behind the scenes involvement, and also their motives, which are water and destabilization of a potential future enemy.

The United States’ motives are not ones that they are willing to openly admit to. They have described (and obfuscated) their motives in various ways. None of their officially stated reasons for being there are remotely sensible.

The fact of the matter is, the most expensive military machine in history is parked on two things in Iraq. One is a small chunk of Baghdad known as the green zone, and the other is oil. The reason that they are parked on the green zone is so that they can protect and maintain the “democratically elected government”. This is merely for the sake of appearance. The reason that they are parked on the oil is … so that they can rid Iraq of weapons of mass destruction? Or perhaps so that they can rid Iraq of it’s evil dictator? Or just maybe, they concern themselves with the second largest oil reserves in the world, because they want the oil. Reasonable people can figure it out pretty easily. In fact, if you are reading this, and do not understand the importance of oil as a motivating factor for the Americans, then I guess it is true that people can read after having a lobotomy. Congrats.

Remember in the hours leading up to the invasion, when Bush got on TV and addressed the Iraqi people directly? He said that Saddam had 48 hours to leave Iraq, or he would have some Marines knocking on his palace door forthwith. In the same speech he encouraged the Iraqi people not to blow up the oil wells when the invasion commenced. That establishes a firm link between protecting Iraqi oil, and ridding Iraq of Saddam Hussein. Halliburton, and other American oil companies have generously assisted in helping the Iraqi people figure out what to do with the oil since they no longer had Saddam’s assistance in the decision making process.

There are many reasons why the Americans need to control that oil, not the least of which is that they need to ensure it is traded in American dollars in order to protect the value of the currency. American wealth is predicated on the irrational value of their dollar. It is the reserve currency of the world, and has recently been challenged by the Euro. Not coincidentally, before the invasion, Saddam had begun trading Iraqi oil in Euros rather than the US dollar. The Americans need to have a knife at the throat of the Chinese who hold 10 trillion American dollars and could dump it on the market tomorrow. The Chinese also, in large part finance the American deficit. China can instantly bankrupt the United States, but they certainly won’t do anything that would jeopardize their access to oil.

The motives of the Iraqi insurgency are pretty clear. The Iraqis don’t like being invaded and occupied. They have a long history of successfully removing invaders. The insurgents are using many methods of sending that message to the Americans, such as suicide bombings, IEDs, and many assorted guerrilla tactics. I suspect that Canadians would react the same way if a foreign army were parked on Parliament Hill and the tar sands. Of course there is infighting between sectarian groups, which results in many of the civilian deaths in the country, but all the groups agree on one thing; the Americans must be removed from Iraq forcefully.

Every insurgency is by definition successful. The fact that an insurgency exists represents the failure of an invading power to win the hearts and minds of the population that they seek to dominate. If the Americans had succeeded in creating a politically tenable solution for Iraqis in the wake of the invasion, then the insurgency would never have been born, because there would not have been widespread support for it. For these reasons, the Americans, who are now in an unbelievable Catch-22, will need help from the international community to form an exit strategy that keeps their original objectives intact.

The Iranians are the other main player in this violent drama. They are supporting the insurgency as vigorously as possible, without quite doing it openly. When examining their potential motives, one should first hearken back to that fateful state of the union address right before the invasion of Iraq, when President Bush, in one of his most elegant maneuvers ever, referred to Iran as one of the constituent nations of the Axis of Evil. It is kind of like Bush said to Iran, “We are going to invade Iraq, and you’re next”. That message was fortified by the actions they subsequently took. All of Iran’s actions on the international stage should be examined through the prism of the American invasion of Iraq. No one is going to cast Iran in the role of “good guy”, but at least they can make a believable argument that they act in self-defense rather than their economic interests.

The Americans want to control access to Iraq’s oil, and they want it to be traded in their currency. The Bush administration won’t ever admit it, but they know they need a way to declare victory, and get out of there while still controlling the oil. The Iraqis want to have their own country to their own selves, and they want to be able to envision a brighter future for their children. The Iranians want security, period. The objectives of these three parties are not mutually exclusive. A compromise should be possible.

In part two of the Kismet peace plan, a course of action will be laid out that, with enough international support, could satisfy every antagonist in Iraq, whether they want to be satisfied or not.